The Sky is Falling 2.0


Photo Credit: Gary Shaw

I lamented over whether or not to write this post, but felt that it was absolutely necessary in order to stop any potential widespread panic after Dave Winer’s post that semi predicts the end of Bubble 2.0.

According to Winer, “In the late 90s, we knew the end would come, and we knew what the end would look like — a stock market crash of the dotcom sector. So, if Web 2.0 is a bubble, and if like all bubbles it bursts, how will we know when it happens? Today we got the first rumblings of the shock that will signal the end of the bubble. Google stock will crash. That’s how we’ll know. “

But wait, I just wrote about it surpassing $500 last week. Well today, it’s down to $491, but it closed up from yesterday’s close at $484.75.

First, let me state that I absolutely respect Winer and I’m an avid reader of Scripting News. But, are we supposed to panic now and cry that the sky is falling just because one financial publication claims that Google is overrated? What about the hundreds of analysts that predict GOOG will hit anywhere from $536 – $600 within the next twelve months, are they all wrong?

Scoble even chimed in on this subject, but to the contrary, “Google’s growth isn’t close to being done yet. Particularly internationally.”

Winer has been saying for almost a year that Web 2.0 is nothing more than an aftermarket for Google. Liz Gannes of GigaOM has even reported that many of today’s Web 2.0 companies are merely extensions to already existing products. I too have reported that advertising and Google Adsense couldn’t possibly support every new startup out there and that companies were going to have to start thinking less about being 2.0 for 2.0’s sake and more about how it will build and sustain longevity and relevance.

But, that doesn’t mean that Google will crash. In fact, many startups are pushing things forward and users are embracing tech and social media more than ever before.

And from an investment perspective, both Google and Yahoo are adding functionality and value for pennies on the dollar by gobbling up all of these innovative startups. We’re only just beginning here.

We have nothing to fear about a bubble crash, at least not yet. Winer’s post is simply crying wolf. Technically, all economic data points to a financial spike, not even a bubble yet, and with 3.0 on the horizon, I think we’re set for quite sometime.

For a funny sidenote, see these two posts I wrote for help hungry startups attract the attention of Google and Yahoo during O’Reilly’s Web 2.0 conference.


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  • Anonymous

    It’s a slow week and this is a nice piece of sensationalism to stir up conversation. It doesn’t mean anything, but we can pretend that it does.

    This is not meant to be snarky — I truly would like to know: Is Dave still planning to stop blogging at the end of the year?

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Brian Solis is principal at Altimeter Group, a research firm focused on disruptive technology. A digital analyst, anthropologist, and futurist, Solis has studied and influenced the effects of emerging technology on business, marketing, and culture. Solis is also globally recognized as one of the most prominent thought leaders and published authors in new media. His new book, What's the Future of Business (WTF), explores the landscape of connected consumerism and how business and customer relationships unfold and flourish in four distinct moments of truth. His previous book, The End of Business as Usual, explores the emergence of Generation-C, a new generation of customers and employees and how businesses must adapt to reach them. Prior to End of Business, Solis released Engage, which is regarded as the industry reference guide for businesses to market, sell and service in the social web.

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